The issue of global warming (or climate change) is, scientifically, easy to understand. Human activity has altered the natural composition of our atmosphere. We have added carbon dioxide (CO2), and other gases (methane, sulfer hexaflouride and others) that trap energy that would otherwise be radiated into space. Collectively these gases are known as greenhouse gases (or GHGs).

The complications begin when we try to figure out precise impacts of the increased concentrations of GHGs. Generally, more energy in the earth's climate system means severe weather events of greater frequencey and intensity. The generally warmer conditions throw biosystems out of whack, alter our expected weather patterns, allow diseases to spread, increase water stress, and increase potential for flooding--just to name a few impacts, but it is impossible to make exact predictions of what will happen.

To stop what is considered catastrophic levels of damages, emissions of GHGs have to be cut by 50-80% from today's levels. This is not an easy task howeever as burning fossil fuels, the principle source of GHGs, is currently necessary to drive the world economy. Also problematic is the fact there there are no technologies currently available that will solve this problem, the solution will require using all available technologies and practice at our disposal.

Naturally, there will be costs associated with addressing this issue. The best economists in the world tell us that from the world's perspective, it is in our best interest to act. Unfortunately, we are up against powerful economic and political forces. In particular, a clean planet is a public good (those who do not pay for it will still enjoy the benefits provided by those who do)--the temptation is always there to let others do the work.

Also, the benefits are imprecise, we don't know exactly who will be the beneficiaries or when the benefits will arrive, whereas the costs are much easier to attribute. Poorly defined, but real future benefits weighed against current costs presents difficult political problems despite the severity of the potential losses. Given the costs involved, political difficulties in pursuing meaningful action, technical difficulties in developing practicable solutions, climate change is perhaps the greatest challenge we have ever faced.

There are a few bright spots however. Although many say that effective legislation is too expensive, that is simply not true. Economic models show costs on the order of 1-5% of world GDP in 2020--while per capita GDP over the same time frame is expected to go up by over 100% (I have to double check this number)-- so, everybody can be twice as rich as they are now and the planet can be saved.

And yes, you can make a difference! Easy steps--Vote for people who understand the issue instead of those trying to conform reality to their own political ideology; buy products from companies with good environmental performance; adopt energy saving technology (yes it costs more up front, but saves you money in the long run<--save the world and save money!)...easy example--buying compact flourescent lightbulbs; walk/bike--good for you, good for the environment. And the not so easy step--realize we are a community, you are a citizen of the world, and you owe it to your fellow citizens and to future generations to do your part.

If you have questions or comments, please send them to mac@vermillionlies.com